Dengue as an emergent epidemiological phenomenon: dynamics of the outbreaks of 2016 and 2020 in Buenos Aires province

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is an emerging problem in Argentina. In the province of Buenos Aires, the first outbreak was in 2016, and the one occurred during 2020 caused 82% more cases and affected districts with no previous cases. The objective of this study was to characterize the outbreak dynamics in the province of Buenos Aires in 2016 and 2020. METHODS: A descriptive, retrospective and crosssectional study was conducted. The cases were registered in the National Health Surveillance System. The frequency distributions of the reported cases were calculated, considering also the origin: imported or autochthonous. Incidence rates and rate ratios were calculated for each Health Region. The diffusion of the epidemic wave for both outbreaks was obtained by calculating dimensionless metrics. RESULTS: Both outbreaks showed waves with similar behavior, but with different temporal expansion and diffusion speeds that distanced from each other at the beginning and then towards the end. The last outbreak had a higher incidence, but a propagation rate with less variation. DISCUSSION: This research allowed to characterize the two outbreaks occurred in 2016 and 2020, and to focus regionally on the incidence of the re-emerging phenomenon of dengue arbovirus infection (mainly circulating DEN-1) in the province of Buenos Aires, with incidence figures that exceeded those known in the history of the disease in Argentina.