Development of Epidemiological Criteria to Stratify by Department the Population Risk of Severe Dengue

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: In Argentina since 1998, dengue outbreaks occurred every year except 2001 and 2005 in different areas, in 15 jurisdictions, with identification of the 4 serotypes. The objective of this study was to identify populations at higher risk of developing severe forms of the disease as an input for the possible introduction of a prevention strategy. METHODS: A descriptive, retrospective study was conducted of confirmed indigenous dengue cases from official publications, SNVS notifications and information provided by the provincial epidemiological areas. A stratification of the risk of severe dengue at department level was developed for the period 1998-2018. RESULTS: Five criteria were defined for the stratification of risks: registry of autochthonous cases in at least 2 of the last 5 years, registration of 2 or more serotypes causing 10% or more of the cases each, cumulative incidence greater than 500 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, cumulative incidence greater than 5 cases per thousand under 15 years old and registration of severe cases or deaths. We obtained 60 departments with 1 criterion, 19 with 2, 8 with 3, 4 with 4, 1 with 5 and 129 did not complete the criteria. DISCUSSION: Only 13 departments added 3 criteria or more, result of the predominance of DENV-1, the low incidence in children under 15 years and the low number of serious and fatal cases. The stratification of population risk with systematic registration criteria is aimed at obtaining a tool for assessing dengue scenarios that may occur in the future